Weekly Wisdom: Holiday Spending Fueling a Strong Market Finish
Record Black Friday Weekend Shows Consumer Strength
The Black Friday and Cyber Monday period delivered a new record: 202.9 million consumers shopped over the five-day weekend, surpassing last year’s 197 million and breaking the previous record set in 2023.1 This figure far exceeded the National Retail Federation’s initial expectation of 186.9 million shoppers and highlights a consumer base that remains healthy, active, and willing to spend.
Both in-store and online channels saw broad engagement. 130 million people shopped in-store, up from 126 million in 2024, while 135 million shopped online, up from 124 million. Black Friday remained the single biggest day, but the strongest gains came over the weekend, particularly Sunday, which saw a 27% jump in in-store shoppers, setting a new record. Consumer spending was equally robust. 96% of shoppers made a holiday-related purchase, spending an average of $337.86, up from $315.56 last year and the highest level since 2019.2
Despite cautious sentiment at times, the underlying consumer remains resilient. Consumers continue to prioritize spending on gifts and seasonal items, even if they’re more selective in other categories. The update also highlighted how retailers are absorbing higher costs from tariffs to maintain stable pricing, supporting continued demand.
Thanksgiving Weekend Shoppers Chart3
Holiday Sales Expected to Surpass $1 Trillion
The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that November–December retail sales will grow 3.7% to 4.2%, bringing total spending to $1.01–$1.02 trillion. The first-time holiday sales are expected to cross the trillion-dollar mark. Consumers plan to spend a total of $890.49 per person, the second-highest level in the survey’s 23-year history, reinforcing the theme of steady, dependable consumption heading into year-end.4
Retailers are preparing for sustained holiday demand, expecting to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers. While this is lower than last year’s 442,000 hires, some staffing was pulled forward to support October promotions, and retailers remain ready to add employees as demand continues.5 Consumers are highly engaged, value-conscious, and motivated by compelling promotions. With 84% of shoppers already underway but still 53% of their holiday shopping remaining, spending momentum remains strong as we move into December.6
Holiday Season Historical and Forecasted Sales Chart7
December’s Historical Strength for Equities
December has historically been one of the strongest months for equities. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.5% gain in December, making it the second strongest month of the year and leaving it positive in 74% of all Decembers, the highest positive rate of any calendar month. While the five-year average return for the S&P 500 in December is 0.82%, this figure is pulled lower by a sharp decline of -5.90% in 2022 related to aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and heightened recession fears. When removing that single outlier, the remaining four years average a gain of 2.46%, highlighting how supportive December typically is for the market.8
December has also shown a particularly favorable distribution of outcomes, with the index posting at least a 3.8% return in 75% of Decembers, while even the weaker 25th percentile outcome still averages a gain of 0.2%, the best low-end result of any month. The effect is even more pronounced in small caps, with the Russell 2000 Index averaging a 2.4% gain since 1979, the second highest of any month.9
Historical performance also shows that nearly all of the net gains for both large caps and small caps occur in the second half of December, underscoring the tendency for markets to strengthen into year-end.
Record-breaking Black Friday and Cyber Monday results highlight a confident and resilient consumer. This solid spending backdrop aligns with one of the most historically supportive months for equities, with December showing strong average returns, a high percentage of positive outcomes, and particularly constructive performance in the second half of the month. As we move through the final weeks of the year, both consumer momentum and seasonal market patterns present a favorable setup for risk assets heading into year-end.
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[1] National Retail Federation, as of December 2025
[2] National Retail Federation, as of December 2025
[3] National Retail Federation Consumer Survey, as of December 2025
[4] National Retail Federation, as of December 2025
[5] National Retail Federation, as of December 2025
[6] National Retail Federation, as of December 2025
[7] U.S. Census, National Retail Federation, as of December 2025
[8] Bloomberg, as of December 2025
This material is for general information and educational purposes only. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions.
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