What Real-Time Data Says About the Economy
Jeffrey L. Corliss, CFP®, ChFC®, CLU® CASL®
Managing Director
Most economic reports are released with a delay, which means investors are often looking at what happened weeks or even months ago after economists have had time to gather the data. The Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index helps fill that gap by providing a more up-to-date snapshot of economic activity. The index combines several real-time measures of the economy, including consumer spending, employment trends, rail activity, electricity use, fuel sales, and steel production, to estimate the economy’s growth rate. Through the first half of 2026, the estimate has run around +3%, well above the long-term average growth rate of +2.0% (Figure 1). The signal has been consistent: the economy remains on solid footing in 2026.
Manufacturing activity tells a similar story. The ISM Manufacturing Index, a widely followed survey of purchasing managers at factories, rose to 54 in May, its strongest reading in four years (Figure 2). May was the fifth straight month above 50, the threshold that signals expansion, with 16 of 18 industries reporting growth. After a challenging period from 2023 through most of 2025, manufacturers are benefiting from lower interest rates and increased business investment. Tech companies are investing hundreds of billions into data centers, computer chips, and power infrastructure, providing an additional boost to the manufacturing sector. In addition, some businesses appear to be pulling orders forward due to concerns that the Middle East conflict could push oil prices and production costs higher.
Labor market data shows a similar story. Hiring picked up in early 2026 after slowing in the second half of 2025. Employers added 172,000 jobs in May, with the prior two months revised higher, and unemployment has declined from a peak of 4.5% late last year to 4.3%. Consumers, who account for nearly 70% of economic activity, are still spending, though at a modestly slower pace than a year ago. The reports reflect past activity, but they reinforce the message coming from the real-time data: economic growth remains solid.
As we move into the second half of 2026, the economy continues to show resilience, even as the headlines remain unsettled. The Middle East conflict has pushed oil and gas prices higher and kept inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. Interest rates have come down but remain elevated, and with inflation still running above target, the Fed appears likely to hold interest rates steady the remainder of this year. None of that has derailed the economy so far. The big story of 2026 is an economy that has kept growing through a noisy and uncertain stretch.
This material is for general information and educational purposes only. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions.
Find answers to your questions about Hightower Signature Wealth
Hightower Signature Wealth is a fiduciary wealth management practice that provides investment management, financial planning, estate strategies, insurance, and banking solutions. We work with families, business owners, professionals, women, and retirees across more than 40 offices nationwide. Our advisors take the time to understand your financial priorities, develop a plan around your goals, and adjust that plan as your life and circumstances evolve.
Hightower Signature Wealth provides a broad range of wealth management services designed to address different aspects of your financial life. Our capabilities include investment management, financial planning, retirement planning, estate strategies, insurance and risk management, banking solutions, and charitable giving strategies. By considering these areas together, our advisors can develop a coordinated approach based on your goals, priorities, financial circumstances, and plans for the future.
Hightower Signature Wealth advisors work with a broad range of clients, including women, families, business owners, professionals, retirees, and high-net-worth individuals navigating major life or financial transitions. Rather than applying a generic playbook, each advisor tailors the plan to a client’s specific goals and current stage of life – from early-career decisions to multigenerational wealth transfer.
Yes. Hightower Signature Wealth advisors serve as fiduciaries, which means they are committed to acting in their clients’ interests when providing investment advice. We offer fee-based advisory services, with fees depending on the services provided and the specifics of your relationship. Your advisor will discuss the applicable fee structure with you so you can understand how you are charged and what services are included.
Hightower Signature Wealth has more than 40 offices nationwide, allowing our advisors to serve individuals, families, and organizations across the country. Depending on your location and preferences, you may be able to work with an advisor locally or connect with a team in another market. Visit our Locations page to explore our office locations, learn more about the teams in each market, and find an office near you.
Getting started with Hightower Signature Wealth is simple. Complete our online contact form with some basic information about yourself and what you are looking for, and we’ll connect you with an advisor who can discuss your needs and financial priorities. That initial conversation is an opportunity to learn more about our approach, ask questions, and determine whether working with a Hightower Signature Wealth advisor may be a good fit.
Your first conversation is an opportunity for us to learn more about you, your financial circumstances, and what you hope to accomplish. An advisor may ask about your goals, current investments, family considerations, business interests, and other priorities that could influence your financial plan. You’ll also have an opportunity to ask questions, learn about our approach, and discuss what working together could look like.
