Moe’s Market Memo – March 6, 2026
Weekly data-driven insights on the markets and economy
Mohammad Abouchleih, MBA, CIMA®
Investment Analyst
Geopolitics grip oil
Oil prices rose about 1% on Wednesday as U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted key Middle East supply routes, including the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has already forced major producers like Iraq to sharply cut output and pushed Asian buyers to seek alternative sources. While Washington floated naval escorts and political‑risk insurance, analysts say meaningful de‑escalation remains absent, keeping geopolitical risk elevated for energy markets.1
ADP adds jobs
ADP reported on Wednesday that private employers added 63,000 jobs in February, a rebound from January’s sharply revised 11,000 and ahead of expectations. Hiring, however, remained narrow, with health care and construction accounting for nearly all gains while most other sectors were flat or negative. Wage growth for job‑switchers fell to its lowest level on record, underscoring a labor market that is stabilizing but still lacking broad momentum.2
Target turnaround
Target reported on Tuesday another quarter of declining revenue and customer traffic, but shares rose as the company said February sales turned positive and outlined a more confident full‑year outlook under new CEO Michael Fiddelke. The retailer expects modest growth this year as it leans into store investments, membership expansion, and a broader turnaround strategy.3
Data centers down
Drone strikes on Amazon Web Services (AWS) data centers in the United Arab Emirates on Monday caused widespread outages across banking, payments, and consumer apps. AWS said two UAE facilities and one in Bahrain were damaged, with recovery efforts still underway as of Wednesday morning. The disruptions come amid escalating regional conflict, pushing oil prices higher and weighing on global equities.4
Mortgage rates rise
Mortgage rates jumped back above 6% on Monday as Treasury yields climbed following renewed Middle East tensions and early‑month bond‑market repositioning. The move comes just as the spring housing season begins, and markets will look to this week’s economic data—especially Friday’s U.S. Employment Situation Report (nonfarm payrolls) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics—for direction on whether rates can move lower again.5
Paramount prevails
Last Thursday, Paramount Skydance’s higher bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) was deemed superior, prompting Netflix to withdraw. The decision ends a long bidding battle and positions Paramount to acquire WBD’s full portfolio, from studios to major cable networks. The deal marks one of the most significant consolidation moves in media, with investors now watching how a combined company could reshape the competitive landscape.6
[1] Reuters. “Oil Prices Up 1% as Iran Crisis Disrupts Middle East Supply.” CNBC, 4 March 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/04/oil-prices-up-1percent-as-iran-crisis-disrupts-middle-east-supply.html. Accessed 4 March 2026.
[2] Cox, Jeff. “Private Companies Added 63,000 Jobs in February, January Revised to Just 11,000 Additions, ADP Says.” CNBC, 4 March 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/04/private-companies-added-63000-jobs-in-february-january-revised-to-just-11000-additions-adp-says.html. Accessed 4 March 2026.
[3] Repko, Melissa. “Target Says It’s on Track to End Its Sales Slump after Another Lackluster Quarter.” CNBC, 3 March 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/target-tgt-q4-2025-earnings.html. Accessed 4 March 2026.
[4] Nicol‑Schwarz, Kai and Graham, Emma. “Banking, Payments Services Disrupted after Amazon UAE Data Centers Hit in Drone Strikes.” CNBC, 3 March 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/iran-war-uae-drone-strikes-aws-data-centers.html. Accessed 4 March 2026.
[5] Olick, Diana. “Mortgage Rates Jump Sharply Higher after Iran Strikes, Reversing Last Week’s Decline.” CNBC, 2 March 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/mortgage-rates-jump-sharply-higher-after-iran-strikes-reversing-last-weeks-decline.html. Accessed 4 March 2026.
[6] Rizzo, Lillian and Sherman, Alex. “Netflix Ditches Deal for Warner Bros. Discovery after Paramount’s Offer Is Deemed Superior.” CNBC, 26 February 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/26/warner-bros-discovery-paramount-skydance-deal-superior-netflix.html. Accessed 4 March 2026.
This material is for general information and educational purposes only. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions.
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