Moe’s Market Memo — August 14, 2026

Weekly data-driven insights on the markets and economy

Mohammad Abouchleih, MBA, CIMA®
Investment Analyst

Cooling Pressures

A report released Wednesday showed consumer prices rose 3.4% year over year in July, down from 3.5% in June, signaling that broader inflation pressures continued to ease. Energy costs remained the primary source of price pressure, with gasoline, fuel oil, and airline fares posting significant annual increases tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions, while food and core inflation remained relatively contained. The report suggests inflation is moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, though policymakers are expected to remain cautious as they assess whether the recent moderation will prove durable.1

COLA Outlook Softens

In a Wednesday update, following the release of the latest inflation data, updated estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) were revised lower, with forecasts now ranging from 3.4% to 3.6%. The moderation in inflation has reduced expectations from earlier projections that exceeded 4%, though the anticipated increase remains above the program’s long-term average. With two more months of inflation data due before the official COLA announcement in October, beneficiaries are still expected to see a meaningful benefit increase, but the final adjustment remains subject to change.2

Lakers’ New Era

In one of the biggest sports transactions of the year, the Los Angeles Lakers were sold to Bob Iger and Joshua Kushner in a deal valuing the franchise at $12.5 billion, underscoring the continued rise in premium sports asset values. The sale comes less than a year after Mark Walter acquired control of the team and highlights strong investor demand for globally recognized franchises with powerful media and commercial reach. The acquisition also deepens the intersection of sports, entertainment, and technology, with both Iger and Kushner bringing extensive experience across those sectors.3

Rates Pause, Buyers Return

New data released Wednesday showed that after five consecutive weeks of increases, mortgage rates edged lower last week, providing a modest boost to housing demand. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.77%, helping drive gains in both refinance and home purchase applications, though activity remains below year-ago levels as affordability challenges continue to weigh on the market. The data suggests even small rate movements can influence buyer behavior, highlighting the housing market’s sensitivity to interest rates as investors await further inflation signals and potential shifts in monetary policy.4

Loan Penalty Grows

Earlier this week, new analysis highlighted how the Department of Education’s Repayment Assistance Plan, or RAP, could significantly increase monthly student loan payments for some married borrowers who file taxes jointly. Because the plan factors in combined household income and uses a tiered payment structure, many couples may face a steeper “marriage penalty” than under previous income-driven repayment options. The changes underscore the growing complexity of student loan repayment decisions, making tax filing status, income levels, and forgiveness strategies increasingly important considerations for borrowers.5

Open Source Offensive

Announced Monday, Meta revealed plans to open-source its most advanced AI model, Muse Spark 1.2, and launch a new family of AI models designed to run directly on laptops. The strategy contrasts with the more closed ecosystems favored by some competitors and reflects Meta’s effort to demonstrate progress on its significant AI investments. By prioritizing open access and on-device capabilities, the company is betting that broader adoption and developer engagement will help accelerate innovation and reinforce its competitive standing in the rapidly evolving AI landscape.6

[1] Jessica Dickler. “Here’s the Inflation Breakdown for July 2026 — in One Chart.” CNBC, 12 August 2026, CNBC article. Accessed 12 August 2026.

[2] Konish, Lorie. “Social Security COLA Estimates for 2027 Fall as Inflation Moderates.” CNBC, 12 August 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/social-security-cola-estimates-for-2027-fall-as-inflation-moderates.html. Accessed 12 August 2026.

[3] Sherman, Alex, and Jessica Golden. “Bob Iger, Joshua Kushner Buy Los Angeles Lakers at a $12.5 Billion Valuation, Source Says.” CNBC, 12 August 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/bob-iger-joshua-kushner-buy-los-angeles-lakers-from-mark-walter.html. Accessed 12 August 2026.

[4] Olick, Diana. “Mortgage Rates Finally Stop Rising, Causing Demand to Trickle Back.” CNBC, 12 August 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/mortgage-rates-finally-stop-rising-causing-demand-to-trickle-back-.html. Accessed 12 August 2026.

[5] Nova, Annie. “Student Loan Borrowers Face Steeper ‘Marriage Penalty’ Under New Repayment Plan.” CNBC, 10 August 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/student-loan-marriage-penalty-rap.html. Accessed 10 August 2026.

[6] Kharpal, Arjun. “Meta to Open Source Its Most Powerful AI Model as It Takes Swipe at OpenAI, Anthropic.” CNBC, 10 August 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/meta-muse-glimmer-open-weight-ai.html. Accessed 10 August 2026.